Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020

We all are uncertain about how the future will unfold. This is a primary reason why decision making in business, public policy and our personal lives is so hard. As the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold [W20], we are all confronted numerous new decisions that hinge a lot on how bad this is going to get. And these are hard, because the uncertainty and the stakes are so big.

Mixed mode traffic, aerial view

An Analytica advantage over MATLAB

If you’re working in MATLAB and find yourself using repmat and reshape, consider letting Analytica do that unenjoyable dimension management on your behalf so you can focus on building out a useful model.

What to do when your model results are ridiculous?

When an exhaustive scrutiny of the model code, the data and more sensitivity analyses don’t reveal why your model isn’t working, you must consider that perhaps it’s your intuition that is wrong. Learn why a normative framework like decision analysis can help vs treating human expertise and intuition as the “gold standard.”

Testing hypotheses about causation

In 2002, I developed a statistical framework for testing whether your data provides statistically significant support for the hypothesis that A causes B. I published only one conference paper with some colleagues on the idea before moving on to other things, but I’ve always felt the idea was pretty novel and interesting.

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