Is the Fermi Paradox due to the Flaw of Averages?
Where is everybody? — Enrico Fermi The omnipresence of uncertainty is part of why making predictions and decisions is so …
Is the Fermi Paradox due to the Flaw of Averages? Read More »
Voluntary vs. mandatory testing for naval crew selection
As COVID-19 testing becomes a routine part of doing business, some operations face the question of whether testing should be …
Voluntary vs. mandatory testing for naval crew selection Read More »
A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works
(Posted on 15-Apr-2020) On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington …
A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works Read More »
Suppression strategy and updated forecast for US deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
(Posted 23-Mar-2020) Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach
On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach Read More »
Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
We all are uncertain about how the future will unfold. This is a primary reason why decision making in business, public policy and our personal lives is so hard. As the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold [W20], we are all confronted numerous new decisions that hinge a lot on how bad this is going to get. And these are hard, because the uncertainty and the stakes are so big.
The mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus
It has only been about a month since the new strain of a coronavirus appeared in the city of Wuhan, …
Book Review: Toma de decisiones bajo incertidumbre
This just-released Spanish-language textbook from Professor Jorge E Muro Arbulú has now taken its spot as my favorite textbook on …
Book Review: Toma de decisiones bajo incertidumbre Read More »
An Analytica advantage over MATLAB
If you’re working in MATLAB and find yourself using repmat and reshape, consider letting Analytica do that unenjoyable dimension management on your behalf so you can focus on building out a useful model.
