PATHWAYS is an Analytica model that simulates the effects and costs of alternative decarbonization scenarios to enable California to meet its GHG reduction targets for 2030 and beyond, up to 2050. The model encompasses the entire California economy with detailed representations of the buildings, industry, transportation, and electricity sectors, and interactions among them. It uses an hourly model of the electricity supply and demand and models adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies including turnover of stocks and replacement of vehicles, appliances, and buildings. The model is updated frequently to reflect new data and changes in environmental policies, technology performance and costs, fuel prices, and other factors.
Energy + Environmental Economics (E3), a consulting firm in San Francisco, developed the PATHWAYS model in Analytica, starting in 2008, for the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and other California state agencies. The most recent study explored ten scenarios to achieve the updated policy goals and compared their effectiveness and costs. It has some remarkable conclusions about the preferred “High Electrification Scenario”: