Analytica in Environmental Modeling
It is ever more important for us to understand our environment, how human activities may affect it, and how we can reduce the damage.
Environmental problems are often complex, having many interacting parts – human activities that release pollutants; transport via air, water or land; chemical transformation; physical and biological effects on ecosystems and human health; and the economy that drives the activities and pays for clean up.
To gain a clear understanding and create effective policies for improving the environment, we need careful quantitative analysis. Usually, multidisciplinary teams are involved in building models, and both stakeholders and the general public care about the results.
Models need to be transparent to help modelers, decision makers, and stakeholders understand the assumptions and results. A grounding in science is essential, but, uncertainties are inevitable and should be included in our models.
In order to create quantitative models of complex systems that are transparent and represent uncertainty, many experienced environmental modelers have chosen to use Analytica. Below are a few of the interesting and important models created to help illuminate important issues.
The Future of Coal in South Africa
The Coal Roadmap study used Analytica to model the coal value chain under several possible future scenarios to assess the impact on the economy and environment.
How Much Water Do We Have?
The supply of water has been a community debate. Analytica was used to model water supply and demand, contributing to the St. Helena’s approval of new water usage policies.
Reducing Flood Risk in Ho Chi Minh City
After a devastating flood in Ho Chi Minh City, the World Bank used Analytica to develop a robust strategy to help the city manage and reduce risks of future flooding.
Cleaning up the Neuse Estuary
Pollutants affect water quality and growth of toxic micro-organisms. This models helps policymakers set safe levels nitrogen to ensure the survival of shellfish and fish.
Do Inuit Hunters Threaten Whale Populations?
Population variance, whale fertility and mortality in the absence of hunting are considered in this Analytica model to evaluate the risk to whale populations.
An Integrated Assessment of Acid Rain
How effective was the Clean Air Act at improving air quality and reducing acid rain? The NAPAP developed an integrated environmental assessment model to help answer such questions.
Are Farmed Salmon Safe to Eat?
By comparing the risks and health benefits of farmed salmon, Finnish analysts show that eating farmed salmon is much healthier than eating beef and other animal proteins.
From Controversy to Consensus: California’s Offshore Oil
Offshore oil in California is highly controversial. But, Lumina’s decision model on decommissioning oil platforms led to consensus for “rigs to reefs”.
Integrated Climate Assessment Model
Possibly the most sophisticated environmental model created with Analytica, the ICAM model has generated a wide range of valuable insights into how to adapt to global climate change.
Can California afford its ambitious climate policies.
The State of California uses the PATHWAYS Analytica model to show that it can reach its ambitious target of 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 at reasonable cost.