# News & Blog

## Plotting over a Google Map

Here is how to display your geographic data on a Google map background.

## An Optimal Valentine’s Date

“You know, Valentine’s Day reminds me of the optimal stopping problem.” Not sure if this phrase was uttered elsewhere, but, …

## How to update y = m x + b with new data

Abstract: Bayesian linear regression made super easy and intuitive! You arrive in a new city for the first time, and you’ll …

## What to do when your model results are ridiculous?

When an exhaustive scrutiny of the model code, the data and more sensitivity analyses don’t reveal why your model isn’t working, you must consider that perhaps it’s your intuition that is wrong. Learn why a normative framework like decision analysis can help vs treating human expertise and intuition as the “gold standard.”

In 2002, I developed a statistical framework for testing whether your data provides statistically significant support for the hypothesis that A causes B. I published only one conference paper with some colleagues on the idea before moving on to other things, but I’ve always felt the idea was pretty novel and interesting.

## Efficient estimation of the expected value of information (EVI) using Monte Carlo

The expected value of information (EVI) lets you estimate the value of getting new information that reduces uncertainty. At first blush, …

## How the strange Cauchy distribution proved useful

On Tuesday I had an interesting exchange with Jorge Muro Arbulú, a professor in Peru, about the Cauchy distribution, which …

## Max Henrion awarded 2018 Ramsey Medal for Decision Analysis

The Decision Analysis Society has awarded the 2018 Frank Ramsey Medal to Max Henrion, CEO of Lumina and originator of …

## Using Python to parse a Shapefile

A shapefile (*.shp) is a binary file format used by Geographic Information Systems (GIS). I used an existing Python library …

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