Analytica 2021 Webinar Series
Applied Real Options Analysis for the Finance and Decision Professional (Aug 25, 2021)
Dan Zoppo, finance professional and expert Analytica user, gave a talk about the simple yet flexible and powerful Least Squares Monte Carlo method. This talk discussed what real options are, why we should be interested in them, and how to solve real options problems in practice. Also, Dan kindly shared his Analytica model and slides on his blog, Freehold Finance.
Real options represent managerial decisions and operational flexibilities that can contribute significant value to a business in response to market and operational uncertainties that unfold over time. While finance academics have long promoted real options analysis as superior to static discounted cash flow analysis it is only with the advent of modern computing and algorithms that real options can take their place in the finance and decision professional’s toolkit. This method is an approximate dynamic programming approach that has been used to value a diverse range of assets including natural resource investments, energy generation and storage assets, pharmaceutical R&D, and real estate.
Making jet fuel from the sun and wind: when will it be cost effective? (June 17, 2021)
Dr. Evan Sherwin, Stanford Postdoctoral Research Fellow, discusses his research (and Analytica model) to answer the question: when will it be cost effective to make jet fuel from sun and wind?
As the energy system moves toward variable renewable electricity, sectors such as aviation may require energy-dense low-carbon liquid fuels to dramatically reduce emissions. Electrofuels, synthesized from CO2 from direct air capture and hydrogen from electrolysis of water, powered primarily by solar or wind electricity, may present a cost-effective path forward. However, this approach will require operating capital-intensive equipment using variable renewable electricity. Dr. Sherwin employed an optimization-based techno-economic analysis, implemented in Analytica, to assess the prospects for large cost reductions, accounting for changes in optimal system operation as component technologies advance.
Modelos de Inversion y Medidas de Riesgo con el metodo Monte Carlo (May 27, 2021)
Dr. Jorge Muro Arbulu presentó sobre el uso del análisis de monte carlo usando Analytica.
Cuando invertimos en un activo, necesariamente hay incertidumbres a futuro, pero con el método Monte Carlo de Analytica podemos cuantificar las distintas métricas de riesgo de nuestra inversión: Probabilidad de pérdida, Volatilidad o Desviación Estándar, Valor en Riesgo o VaR, y Déficit Esperado (o Expected Shortfall) con 10 mil simulaciones (como requiere el acuerdo de Basilea 3) con facilidad.
Aquí construimos un modelo de inversión inmobiliaria y luego explicamos y extraemos las mencionadas métricas del riesgo inherentes a nuestra inversión.
The Value of Knowing How Little You Know: When to leave for the plane (April 22, 2021)
What time should you leave to catch a plane flight? We all know intuitively to leave extra time for traffic and other uncertainties. But, how much time? And what’s the value of considering uncertainty? Max Henrion gave a talk on April 22, 2021 where he introduced the Expected Value of Including Uncertainty (EVIU), compare with the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI), and the insights it gives into a variety of decision problems — including catching a plane. He’ll share the Analytica model.
Inteligencia Artificial en los Negocios (April 15, 2021)
Jorge Muro Arbulu, PhD. gave a wonderful talk titled Inteligencia Artificial como desarrollo de negocios in Spanish. A translation is Artificial Intelligence as business development. Inteligencia Artificial y aplicaciones en los negocios, con ejemplos desarrollados o a desarrollar en Operaciones, Proyectos, y Finanzas.