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An Interesting Christmas Gift

Rob Brown 07 Jan 2015 Risk and uncertainty

Over the holidays, the New York Times delivered an unusual juxtaposition of headlines and content, and apparent lack of self-awareness, to illicit such a hearty chuckle from its readers as to make the cheerful Old Saint jealous.

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Latin Hypercube vs. Monte Carlo Sampling

Lonnie Chrisman 23 Jul 2014 Analytica tips, Analytics and OR, Risk and uncertainty

In a recent post on Linked In, David Vose argues that the advantages of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) over Monte Carlo are so minimal that "LHS does not deserve a place in modern simulation software." [1]  He makes some interesting...

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The Value of Knowing What You Don't Know

Rob Brown 11 Jul 2014 Case studies and applications, Risk and uncertainty

Few of us really like uncertainty. It fills us with dread. It frustrates our planning efforts. It makes analyzing its effects complex. After all, where in a spreadsheet do you put uncertain values for revenue or costs? Admittedly, accounting for...

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Smart Grid Electricity Management and Decision Analytics

Sean Salleh 04 Dec 2013 Analytics and OR, Case studies and applications, Energy and environment, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

To smart or not to smart, that is the question! Except, despite what our TV offerings often display, going smart is always the best choice. Like any human-made system, we should aim toward smart designs, and we need this for...

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Climate Change Effects and Econometric Electricity Demand Forecasting

Sean Salleh 02 Dec 2013 Analytics and OR, Energy and environment, Risk and uncertainty

Whether you find global warming as an ethereal notion only worthy of banter or,  like many scientists, a real phenomenon to be studied, the effects pose difficulty for practitioners to forecast the behavior of commodities like electricity and...

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Electricity Price Forecasting via Time-Series, Regression, and Nearest Neighbor Models

Sean Salleh 29 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

Flip the switch and the light goes on. How simple it is to take this for granted. Large-scale engineered and networked systems manage our daily electrical needs, and many negotiations and transactions happen so that we can fire up our...

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Predictive Analytics and Theories for Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Using Time-Series Models

Sean Salleh 28 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

What’s in a barrel of crude oil? For starters, its price affects global economies. The Asian Financial Crisis that started in 1997 had international investors put a lid on funding, which sparked reductions in oil exports. With boiling demand for...

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Risk Analysis Methods from Probability, Clustering, to Multi-attribute Utility Theory

Sean Salleh 22 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

Machine failure, patient injury, terrorist attacks, and oil spills are just a few events we endure and have to prepare for in life, and they are things that we have to manage. It is hard to manage things that are...

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Risk Management Analytics in Clinical Trials via Data Quality Assurance and Methods

Sean Salleh 20 Nov 2013 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

Whether they are for preventing malaria, detecting melanoma, diagnosing Alzheimer’s disease, treating diabetes, or improving the quality of life for soldiers post-war, clinical trials are crucial. Invalid conclusions from these trials can lead to an array of detrimental side-effects,...

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Statistical Analysis for Decision Support Tools in Multiple Testing and Internet A/B Testing

Sean Salleh 19 Nov 2013 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

Like retail storefronts with well-dressed mannequins, many internet-facing businesses seek to design their webpages with artistry and easily usable services to meet their goals. Pharmaceutical companies test different treatments to find the best of the bunch. Plastics companies building quality...

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