Latin Hypercube vs. Monte Carlo Sampling

In a recent post on Linked In, David Vose argues that the advantages of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) over Monte Carlo are so minimal that "LHS does not deserve a place in modern simulation software." [1]  He makes some ...

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Fast Times to the Core

I remember a time when my driver’s license was just a learner’s permit, tater tots were the best part of lunch, my Great Gatsby book report was due on Friday, and physics was all about stick figures...

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Smart Grid Electricity Management and Decision Analytics

To smart or not to smart, that is the question! Except, despite what our TV offerings often display, going smart is always the best choice. Like any human-made system, we should aim toward smart designs, and we need this...

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Climate Change Effects and Econometric Electricity Demand Forecasting

Whether you find global warming as an ethereal notion only worthy of banter or,  like many scientists, a real phenomenon to be studied, the effects pose difficulty for practitioners to forecast the behavior of commodities like electricity...

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Electricity Price Forecasting via Time-Series, Regression, and Nearest Neighbor Models

Flip the switch and the light goes on. How simple it is to take this for granted. Large-scale engineered and networked systems manage our daily electrical needs, and many negotiations and transactions happen so that we can fire up...

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Predictive Analytics and Theories for Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Using Time-Series Models

What’s in a barrel of crude oil? For starters, its price affects global economies. The Asian Financial Crisis that started in 1997 had international investors put a lid on funding, which sparked reductions in oil exports. With boiling demand...

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Predictive Analytics for Commercial Air Travel Demand from Passenger Decision to Individual Market M

The recent global recession that spread since 2008 hit us hard, and commercial air travel received no dispensation. Although jet fuel prices dropped in 2009, the dwindling air travel demand produced a “worst-ever” performance for world air carriers, as noted...

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Risk Analysis Methods from Probability, Clustering, to Multi-attribute Utility Theory

Machine failure, patient injury, terrorist attacks, and oil spills are just a few events we endure and have to prepare for in life, and they are things that we have to manage. It is hard to manage things that...

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Macro and Micro Level New Organic Food Sales Forecasting via Predictive Analytics

Quarterly business reviews can be stressful: recent performance is critiqued and sales forecasts and targets are to be made. The organic food industry, with 20% annual growth since 1990 according to  a 2008  Agribusiness research report,  is no exception...

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Green Decision Analysis and Preferences from Paper Towels to Cars

You stop by the store to buy some stuff before heading home from work. Cereal, pasta sauce, and pomegranate juice land in your cart, but then you pause to decide on which paper towel to get: a brand name...

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