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Latin Hypercube vs. Monte Carlo Sampling

Lonnie Chrisman 23 Jul 2014 Analytica tips, Analytics and OR, Risk and uncertainty

In a recent post on Linked In, David Vose argues that the advantages of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) over Monte Carlo are so minimal that "LHS does not deserve a place in modern simulation software." [1]  He makes some interesting...

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Fast Times to the Core

Sean Salleh 24 Jan 2014 Analytics and OR

I remember a time when my driver’s license was just a learner’s permit, tater tots were the best part of lunch, my Great Gatsby book report was due on Friday, and physics was all about stick figures and...

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Smart Grid Electricity Management and Decision Analytics

Sean Salleh 04 Dec 2013 Analytics and OR, Case studies and applications, Energy and environment, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

To smart or not to smart, that is the question! Except, despite what our TV offerings often display, going smart is always the best choice. Like any human-made system, we should aim toward smart designs, and we need this for...

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Climate Change Effects and Econometric Electricity Demand Forecasting

Sean Salleh 02 Dec 2013 Analytics and OR, Energy and environment, Risk and uncertainty

Whether you find global warming as an ethereal notion only worthy of banter or,  like many scientists, a real phenomenon to be studied, the effects pose difficulty for practitioners to forecast the behavior of commodities like electricity and...

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Electricity Price Forecasting via Time-Series, Regression, and Nearest Neighbor Models

Sean Salleh 29 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

Flip the switch and the light goes on. How simple it is to take this for granted. Large-scale engineered and networked systems manage our daily electrical needs, and many negotiations and transactions happen so that we can fire up our...

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Predictive Analytics and Theories for Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Using Time-Series Models

Sean Salleh 28 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

What’s in a barrel of crude oil? For starters, its price affects global economies. The Asian Financial Crisis that started in 1997 had international investors put a lid on funding, which sparked reductions in oil exports. With boiling demand for...

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Predictive Analytics for Commercial Air Travel Demand from Passenger Decision to Individual Market M

Sean Salleh 25 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Case studies and applications, Modeling methods

The recent global recession that spread since 2008 hit us hard, and commercial air travel received no dispensation. Although jet fuel prices dropped in 2009, the dwindling air travel demand produced a “worst-ever” performance for world air carriers, as noted in...

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Risk Analysis Methods from Probability, Clustering, to Multi-attribute Utility Theory

Sean Salleh 22 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

Machine failure, patient injury, terrorist attacks, and oil spills are just a few events we endure and have to prepare for in life, and they are things that we have to manage. It is hard to manage things that are...

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Macro and Micro Level New Organic Food Sales Forecasting via Predictive Analytics

Sean Salleh 14 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods

Quarterly business reviews can be stressful: recent performance is critiqued and sales forecasts and targets are to be made. The organic food industry, with 20% annual growth since 1990 according to  a 2008  Agribusiness research report,  is no exception from...

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Green Decision Analysis and Preferences from Paper Towels to Cars

Sean Salleh 13 Nov 2013 Analytics and OR, Energy and environment, Modeling methods

You stop by the store to buy some stuff before heading home from work. Cereal, pasta sauce, and pomegranate juice land in your cart, but then you pause to decide on which paper towel to get: a brand name pictured...

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